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Civilization / delegation

The Humanity Endgame Simulator

How much progress can we survive? Build a better future. Discover whether anybody still needs to be in it.

Live thought experiment Invented assumptions. Real arithmetic. No predictive powers.

01 / Interfere

Start with a questionable premise
60 / 100
NoneSuperintelligence

Raises productive capacity while delegating human decisions.

55 / 100
Tribal warfarePlanetary unity

Reduces conflict; extreme consensus can narrow personal freedom.

50 / 100
ScarcityPost-scarcity

Meets needs, with ecological costs when expansion is unchecked.

60 / 100
ContentmentInfinite expansion

Drives capability and discovery, but increases demand and exposure.

30 / 100
Natural humansEngineered superhumans

Adds capacity while creating dependencies and transition risks.

Year 2,317
2050Year 100,000

A logarithmic horizon, beginning with a fixed 2026 baseline.

Changes calculate immediately. Arrow keys work too.
The universe has no undo button. We have Reset.

02 / Observe the consequences

● Live
fig. 02 / a provisional outcome
Departmental finding

Civilization (work in progress)

The future remains a negotiation. This is inconvenient, and possibly the point.

Needs satisfied
59 %

Provision relative to ambition-driven demand.

Work still required
40 %

Share of reference workload remaining.

Human agency
53 %

Decisions retained by humans in the model.

Prosperity
58 / 100

Provision and freed labour, less overshoot.

Freedom
53 / 100

Cooperation, resources and room for dissent.

Model existential risk
27 %

Cumulative toy hazard, not a real forecast.

Why this happened

↳By 2,317, 87% of the chosen transition has unfolded. AI increases provision while shifting decisions away from people.

↳Cooperation is the bottleneck: powerful technology is easier to build than a shared reason to use it.

↳Ambition is 60/100. Moderate demand makes satisfaction easier, but leaves some imagined frontiers unexplored. A longer horizon also accumulates risk.

03 / A possible history of later

Scenario milestones, not predictions
  1. 2,026

    The species discovers the sliders

    The same fictional starting point for every scenario. The future has not yet submitted its expenses.

  2. 2,084

    Civilization (work in progress)

    46% of needs met · 82% human agency · 11% model risk. Someone still has to decide what progress means.

  3. 2,172

    Civilization (work in progress)

    53% of needs met · 65% human agency · 20% model risk. Someone still has to decide what progress means.

  4. 2,317

    Civilization (work in progress)

    59% of needs met · 53% human agency · 27% model risk. Someone still has to decide what progress means.

Open the machine / assumptions & arithmetic

What this instrument assumes

  1. A thought experiment beginning in 2026, not a forecast. All settings describe the direction pursued from that baseline; adoption builds gradually over the selected horizon.
  2. AI and enhancement increase productive capacity. Cooperation helps share its gains. Ambition increases both innovation and the needs that must be satisfied.
  3. Human agency means the share of decisions retained in this fictional system, not the moral value of its citizens. Freedom and prosperity are separate invented indices.
  4. Risk compounds a stipulated hazard over a compressed logarithmic exposure scale. Percentages and future milestones describe this model only. They are not real-world probabilities or dated predictions.

How the numbers connect

Slider settings are scaled from 0 to 1. “Clamp” keeps a score between 0 and 1 before display as 0–100. The same inputs always give the same result.

A future that takes time

Adoption = 1 − exp(−years since 2026 / 140). AI and enhancement grow from zero; cooperation, resources and ambition move from a shared baseline towards your settings.

Gains, delegation, hazards

Needs met = clamp(0.18 + 0.55r + 0.45a(0.25 + 0.75c) + 0.20b − 0.20m²). Here r = resources, a = adopted AI, c = cooperation, b = enhancement and m = ambition. Risk = 1 − exp(−4 × hazard × log10(1 + elapsed years / 24)). Conflict, resource stress, enhancement and expansion contribute to hazard.

Model 1.0 · Editorial thought experiment
No background AI calls. No prophecy subscription.

Further opportunities to interfereMeaning efficiency →
Civilization (work in progress)59 %