The Evolutionary Mistake Calculator
Was intelligence a good idea? Give a species a bigger brain. Then explain to it why there is nothing in the fridge.
01 / Interfere
Changes calculate immediately. Arrow keys work too.
The universe has no undo button. We have Reset.
02 / Observe the consequences
● LiveHomo provisionally okayus
Evolution has produced something viable. It has declined to provide a warranty.
Fictional fixed-body species; not IQ.
Potential lifespan among surviving organisms.
Risk-adjusted; starts from a reference of one million.
Per organism, including its technological overhead.
Capacity to cope in this model.
Cumulative toy hazard over your selected horizon.
Why this happened
↳Energy budget: 5,001 available versus 2,593 kcal/day required. The brain is paid for. This is already better than many grant applications.
↳Cooperation helps share technology and reduces self-inflicted hazards. Ecological overshoot pressure is 9/100.
↳Over 398,107 years, adaptation reaches 43% of this model’s potential while hazards keep accumulating. More time is not a guarantee of survival.
Open the machine / assumptions & arithmetic
What this instrument assumes
- A fictional species, starting from a one-million-organism reference population. Intelligence is a scenario setting, not IQ. Body size is held fixed.
- Brain volume and daily energy demand are invented illustrative units. Food supply depends on energy availability and cooperative technology. A shortfall reduces lifespan, population and adaptability.
- Longer horizons allow adaptation but compound a made-up hazard rate. Reported extinction risk is an internal model percentage, not a measured biological probability.
- Abundance can produce ecological overshoot; extreme cooperation can erode diversity. Evolution has no goal, ladder or inevitable destination. These sliders stipulate pressures, not a real evolutionary forecast.
How the numbers connect
Slider settings are scaled from 0 to 1. “Clamp” keeps a score between 0 and 1 before display as 0–100. The same inputs always give the same result.
Daily energy ledger
Supply = 900 + 6,500 × energy × (1 + 0.7 × technology × cooperation). Demand = 1,200 + 0.55 × brain volume + 2,400 × technology^1.5 + 900 × hostility. Deficit = max(0, (demand − supply) / demand).
Adaptation and exposure
Adaptation grows with intelligence, technology, cooperation and time; conformity and energy deficits reduce it. Risk = 1 − exp(−hazard × (1 + log10(years / 10,000))). Hazard includes hostility, deficit, technological conflict and overshoot.
Model 1.0 · Editorial thought experiment
No background AI calls. No prophecy subscription.